Pavel Bandilov, CEO of Industrial Real Estate Fund, in Development, 25.11.2025
The US stock market is mainly influenced by data related to the labour sector, the upcoming Federal Reserve policy and investors’ fears about the technology sector companies. This was commented by Pavel Bandilov, CEO of “Industrial Real Estate Fund,” in the Bloomberg TV Bulgaria programme with host Georgi Mesrobovic.
He described as a strange situation on the market in November when serious adjustments of over 30% occurred in some segments such as the cryptomarket, which is on the brink of a bear market. At the same time relatively positive data were published for the economy with good growth of gross domestic product (GDP).
“Investors show through their behaviour that the main indicator of where markets will move in the coming weeks and months remains the Federal Reserve policy.”
Here, according to Bandilov, comes the big double between investors, which has reflected the market, namely what will happen at the December meeting, whether the Fed will decrease or leave interest rates unchanged.
“For volatility in the mood of investors speaks the fact that last week the probability of seeing a reduction in interest rates was 30%. After several statements by Federal Reserve representatives, it rose again to 60%, other analysts say the chances are 50:50,” the analyst noted.
According to him, the problem arises from the lack of data due to the suspension of the government’s work for 43 days, a kind of record so far. The Federal Reserve must act in the dark when there is no necessary data, the guest said.
The central bank is influenced by two main factors - the fear of inflation, as it continues to be above the 2% target, and the labour market, which sends conflicting data with unemployment growth and at the same time a correction in the newly opened jobs in September, he added.
It’s too early to tell if there’s an AI balloon.
Trend, which excites investors, is whether there is a bubble in the companies in the technology sector and especially those dealing with artificial intelligence, said Bandilov. According to him, it is early to talk about the AI bubble, but he pointed out that the return from companies in the field of artificial intelligence does not correspond to investment costs.
The estimates of these companies are higher than historical levels, but artificial intelligence is increasingly entering people’s lives, the analyst said.
He sees two groups of risks facing companies in the field of artificial intelligence. One is connected to the round-the-clock funding, which, if there’s a negative trigger, will drag everyone down. In addition, investors fear that they do not know what the capital costs of AI companies will be. “Until now, for each quarter the investments of the companies are announced and they are primarily aimed at buying chips and data centers,” said Bandilov.
But investors are worried that it is not yet clear what the amount of investments related to the energy for the data centres will be, which is also insufficient and companies will have to fill the shortage in one way or another, the guest commented.
“That’s why we hear news about companies like Meta who tend to invest in energy sources. This is a colossal investment,” he said.
Companies put debt bonds on the market to invest in artificial intelligence, but they also have good cash positions, the analyst paid attention and added that the machine constantly returns money to them. “That is why we are not in the situation of the dotcom bubble at this stage, when we were wondering where the money is in the market,” said Bandilov.
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